Armenian News Network / Groong
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Introduction
Hello,
and welcome to the Armenian News Network, Groong,
Week in Review. This show was recorded over the weekend, today is Monday,
September 5, 2022.
Here are the major topics we’ll touch on today:
● September 2: Artsakh Independence Day
● Developments in Geopolitics
● “Normalization” with Turkey
● Remembering Mikhail Gorbachev
To analyze the
developing geopolitical landscape, we have with us:
Benyamin Poghosyan, who is the Chairman of the Yerevan based think
tank Center for Political and Economic
Strategic Studies,
Topics This Week
September 2: Artsakh Independence Day
31 years ago on
September 2, the Republic of Nagorno Karabakh declared independence from the
USSR. It was the initial step by the Supreme Council of Karabakh, which was
then ratified on December 2 in a public referendum. While normally this would
be a festive date since the war in 2020 this date has become yet another one to
remember our fallen heroes and the events of the recent years.
Both in Yerevan
and Stepanakert there were political protests against the policies of Nikol Pashinyan and Arayik
Harutyunyan by extension. The Yerevan protest was the long-awaited reboot of
the resistance movement.
Hovik, can you tell us briefly what took place? Did the titular opposition
heed Edgar Ghazaryan’s call to start impeachment proceedings?
Developments in Geopolitics
There were two
major meetings this week between Armenia and Azerbaijan. On August 30, the
deputy PMs met in Moscow, then on August 31, Pashinyan and Aliyev met in
Brussels.
Meeting in Moscow on August 30
First, let’s talk
about Moscow. The deputy prime ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Mher Grigoryan and Shahin
Mustafayev, held a border demarcation commission meeting in Moscow, together with Russian deputy PM
Alexei Overchuk on August 30th. While Armenia earlier
initially rejected this process until Azerbaijan withdrew its forces from
Armenian territory, they changed their story to “no preconditions” and agreed
to start this process. Now the process is expected to take “a very long time”,
according to Civil Contract parliamentarian Vigen
Khachatryan.
The opposition
fears that, the same as the so-called peace negotiations, the government is
engaging in this process from a position of weakness, ready to concede Armenian
sovereign territory in exchange for moving the process forward to Azerbaijan’s
advantage.
● The only agreement in the Armenian MFA’s announcement was to hold a subsequent meeting. Is there any
tangible outcome from this process?
● What is the outlook of this “border demarcation
and delimitation” process?
Note: here is the
Russian announcement reporting on the meeting.
Meeting in Brussels on August 31
The day after the
Armenian and Azerbaijan border commissions met in Moscow, the two countries
held a summit in Brussels. This was the third meeting in 2022 between PM
Pashinyan and President Aliyev under the auspices of EU co-president Charles
Michel, who released a statement to report on the meeting.
Again, it’s hard
to discern what tangible results were achieved.
● What were the outcomes from this summit?
Post-Meeting Reactions
One note in the
reports said that there was agreement to move the next Border commissions
meeting to Brussels. In addition, the next meeting between Aliyev and Pashinyan
will also be in Brussels, in November.
Russia mocked the
Brussels meetings and their effectiveness, saying deputy PM Overchuk’s
border commission meetings with the Armenian and Azerbaijani deputy PMs has
achieved more than the Michel summits.
● This agreement to move the border commission
meeting to Brussels, is it a win for the EU and a slap at Russia, or is it
nothing?
○ Note: Edgar Ghazaryan says this is another
indication that Russia is being sidelined in that process as well.
Recently Turkish
FM Cavusoglu said that Turkey may engage in dialogue with Syria without
preconditions.
● In the constant cooperation and competition
between Russia and Turkey across multiple fronts, including the Middle East and
the South Caucasus, is this announcement a net-positive, or a negative?
Generals Under Fire
● Mikael Arzumanyan arrested
○ Michael Arzumanyan was appointed as commander of
the Artsakh Defense Forces at the end of October, when the war was well in its
course, after Jalal Harutyunyan was injured.
○ In 2021, he resigned his position in 2021 after
his decision to set up a passport control checkpoint for Azerbaijanis using Artsakh
roads did not go that well with Artsakh leadership.
○ A day before the Brussels meeting, arrested on
his way to Yerevan, in Armenia.
○ Accused of negligence that caused the loss of
Shushi. The following day, an additional charge of commanding Armenian forces
to withdraw from Shushi.
○ In the past, Nikol
Pashinyan has separately accused Arthur Vanetsyan,
Manvel Grigoryan, and even Seyran Ohanian of losing
Shushi. Now we have Michael Arzumanyan who was appointed as commander of the
Artsakh Defense Forces at the end of October, when the war was well in its
course.
○ Currently, Arzumanyan is chief advisor to
Artsakh’s President, Arayik Harutyunyan.
○ How does this bode for Yerevan-Stepanakert
relations?
○ How about respect for independence/respect for
Artsakh (Armenia could’ve requested Artsakh authorities to arrest him and
extradite him)
● Charges filed against Jalal Harutyunyan
Normalization with Turkey
Let’s briefly
touch on one of our favorite topics of 2022: the Turkish Armenian so-called
Normalization process.
We have with us
Prof. Vahram Ter-Matevosyan, who is an
associate Professor and Chair of the Political Science and International
Affairs Program at the AUA. His research interests focus on Turkish politics, Kemalism, Political
Islam & Security in the South Caucasus.
There were
reports both from Turkey and Azerbaijan that the 5th meeting of the special
representatives is set for September. But Armenia did not confirm this.
In other articles
on the topic, it was reported that Rubinyan and Kiliç have apparently talked over 500 times in 2022; and
that Kiliç is now insisting that the next meeting
must happen either in Turkey or Armenia.
Meanwhile, as far
as we know, the border has not yet been opened for anyone, including citizens
of third, fourth, or fifth countries.
● What is the current status of the discussions,
and what do you think are the main points of discussion, and/or contention?
● Why is Turkey pressing to meet only in Turkey or
in Armenia?
Turkish officials
at the highest level have now tied the normalization process to the
Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations, specifically Turkey seems to be saying that
Azerbaijan has the power of veto over the process and the implication is that
the process won’t reach fruition until Azerbaijani demands from Armenia are
satisfied.
● So: at what point will this talk of “no
preconditions” become a farce impossible to hide? How long will Armenians
choose to believe in Turkey’s fake sincerity? Or, in other terms we could ask:
what’s in it for Armenia? Why does the Armenian government continue with this
process?
● Does this process contain anything positive for
Armenia?
○ Besides the fact that Kiliç
reportedly sent condolences to Rubinyan about Surmalu.
Maybe we should concede Historic Armenia and start calling the Armenian
Genocide “the tragic losses during the first world war” in exchange for those
condolences…
● Is “Normalization” simply a different term for
“Capitulation” on the western front?
As a final topic, we had an opportunity to ask both Vahram Ter-Matevosyan and Ara Sanjian for their views and remembrance about Mikhail Gorbachev, who passed away this past week at the age of 91.
Mikhail Gorbachev Passes Away
Mikhail
Gorbachev, who served as the last leader of the Soviet Union from 1988 to 1991,
died this past week on August 30th, at the age of
91.
We had the
opportunity for a quick conversation with
Professor Ara Sanjian,
who is an Associate Professor of History and the Director of the Armenian
Research Center at University of Michigan, Dearborn, about this.
Gorbachev
was in charge when a number of momentous events in the life of the Armenian
Soviet Republic happened: the earthquake in 1988, for one; the Karabakh
Liberation Movement; the pogroms against Armenians in the Azerbaijani Soviet
Republic, and more.
● Both as a historian, as well as a student and
researcher in Armenia during those times, how do you remember Gorbachev’s time
in leadership and the fall of the Soviet Union?
● How do you assess his leadership and decisions
about Nagorno Karabakh, Armenians in Azerbaijan, specifically in Sumgait and
Baku?
We
also asked Prof. Ter-Matevosyan
for his recollections of the Gorbachev years.
Topics from the Panelists
1. Hovik
- Trusting the news from the government.
Wrap-up
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READING
That
was our Week in Review show, and we hope it helped you catch up with
some of the issues in and around Armenia from this past week. As always, we
invite your feedback and your suggestions. You can find us on most social media
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we wish you a good week, thanks for listening and we’ll talk to you next week.
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Keywords
Benyamin
Poghosyan, Ara Sanjian, Vahram
Ter-Matevosyan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus,
Turkey, Russia, Mevlut Cavusoglu, Syria, Iran, Middle East, Kurds, Kurdistan,
Syrian Democratic Forces, Transport Links, Corridors, Borders, Peace
Negotiations, Military reform, EU, European Union,