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Introduction
Hello, and welcome to the
Armenian News Network, Groong, Week
in Review. This week we’re going to
talk about the following major topics:
●
Lost in Artsakh, Thirsty in Syunik [Asbarez]
[Asbarez]
●
Amending the Law on Mass Media [168]
[Armenpress]
[Verelq]
[RFE/RL]
●
Update on the Political Scene in Yerevan [RFE/RL]
[RFE/RL]
[News.am]
[News.am]
●
Rising Debt, Inflation, and Interest Rates [News.am]
[News.am]
[RFE/RL]
[Verelq]
[RFE/RL]
[RFE/RL]
[RFE/RL]
[168]
To talk about these issues, we have with us:
Hrant Mikaelian,
a political scientist and multidisciplinary researcher in social sciences based
in Yerevan. He is also a senior researcher at the Caucasus Institute.
And
Emil Sanamyan, a senior research fellow at
USC’s Institute of Armenian Studies specializing in politics in the Caucasus,
with a special focus on Azerbaijan.
Topics This Week
Lost in Artsakh, Thirsty in Syunik
Since the cease-fire in November, the Pashinyan government’s focus has been on defining and opening
borders and initiating trade and economic relations with Azerbaijan. Critics
are asking why the government is not doing more in holding Azerbaijan
responsible for fulfilling their ends of the deal.
After 3 months, we’re seeing Azerbaijan continue
to push for gains on multiple fronts:
●
It has not only not fulfilled its obligation in
the “all for all” exchange of POWs; it has dubbed some of the POWs “terrorists”
and claims that criminal charges will be filed against them.
●
it has advanced its positions forward beyond the
cease-fire line of contact.
●
it imposes restrictions on the collection of the
remains of Armenian soldiers from the frontlines.
●
it continues to divert water resources flowing
through Nakhichevan so that it doesn’t reach Syunik, etc.
What is the current situation and is there a
need for the current dynamic to change?
Despite deep distrust and reservations by the
Armenian people, pro-government circles continue to extol the virtues of living
in peace, open borders and economic benefits with Azerbaijan and Turkey. How do
we explain this disconnect?
Part of this distrust comes from the explicit
and unabashed hate towards Armenians that Erdogan and Aliyev have promoted in
their respective societies and in global fora. One example is the heroization
of axe-murderer Ramil Safarov. Emil Sanamyan discusses his article
on the USC Armenian Institute’s website this past week about Azerbaijan’s
policy of promoting individuals who commit heinous crimes against Armenians.
Amending the Law on Mass Media
A few days ago, six My Step MPs announced a new
bill to amend the law on Mass Media. They say it aims to differentiate between
professional reporters and press organizations from “unnamed sources”. Basically,
they define a source unnamed if the Internet domain, or website or channel’s
registered owner’s information is hidden.
This bill came around “suddenly”, there doesn’t
seem to have been much, if any, discussion in parliament about it. And certainly,
it doesn’t solve the issue of unidentified channels flooding the internet with
material.
Is this a genuine attempt to control Fake News,
or is the government feeling like it’s unable to control the post-war news
narrative?
Does this bill encroach upon journalists’
ability to keep their sources anonymous? What problems are the Ruling Bloc
trying to solve?
During the War in Artsakh last year, there was a
lot of confusing information coming from the Armenian government and armed
forces channels. They actively discouraged us from looking up enemy channels, or spreading “unverified” information. In
retrospect we know that much of the official information was propaganda or
fake, while many of the so-called unnamed sources had useful and correct
information. How do expert sources and consumers of such information from
everywhere view this bill?
The issue of media literacy and 360 information
is fundamental to ANN/Groong’s worldview. Reportedly
the parliamentarians have not consulted with any members of the press before
advancing this bill. How will the media respond to this bill?
Is the Armenian News Network - Groong an
“unnamed source” or a “conscientious and fair organization”?
Update on the Political Scene in Yerevan
The Pashinyan team
seems to be gearing up for snap elections in June.
Last week, we also saw some developments in the
opposition. The Homeland Salvation Movement’s leaders met, including former
presidents Serzh Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan. There are agreements and
disagreements inside the opposition camp.
Sargsyan just met with the Russian ambassador,
while Kocharyan is visiting Moscow, to attend Systema’s
board of directors meeting, but also reportedly to meet with some “Russian Elita''.
How do we view these developments on the
political scene? Under what circumstances would the Russians align with the
opposition and drop PM Pashinyan? Are we really going
towards snap elections and is there a possibility of regime change?
Rising Debt, Inflation, and Interest Rates
The Armenian economy shrank around 7.8 or 8%
last year. Currently the data show a 6.4% year-over-year inflation rate, and
the Central Bank has increased the interest rate twice recently in trying to
control the rising inflation. The unemployment rate is around 16%. Armenia is
behind the curve in the vaccination process, so the economic and social
activity won’t get back to normal until maybe the fourth quarter of this year.
The government just this past week secured
additional loans. The World Bank approved a $7.4 million loan to complete
hospital projects that started in 2013; and Armenia’s $750 million Eurobond
issue was snapped up for an annual 3.9% rate for ten years. At a time when the
West is living through zero percent interest rate years, that’s - in my opinion
- a solid return for investors. It’s notable that the issue was in dollars and
not Drams. It’s also notable that the government has given no concrete plan on
how these funds will be spent - some of it will go to financing portions of the
existing national debt.
The government is currently projecting a 3.2%
growth in 2021. Is this realistic?
Wrap-up
That concludes our program for
This Week in Review episode. We hope
it has helped your understanding of some of the issues from the previous week.
We look forward to your feedback, and your suggestions for issues to cover in
greater depth. Contact us on our website, at groong.org,
or on our Facebook Page “ANN - Groong”,
or in our Facebook Group “Groong - Armenian News Network”.
Special
thanks to Laura Osborn for providing the music for our podcast. On behalf of
everyone in this episode, we wish you a good week. Don’t forget to subscribe to
our channels, Like our pages and follow us on social
media. Thanks for listening and we’ll talk to you next week.
Keywords
Hrant Mikaelian, Emil Sanamyan, Asbed Kotchikian, Nagorno Karabakh, Armenia, Azerbaijan, POW, Prisoners of War,
Additional: Syunik, Water, My Step, Mass Media, Homeland Salvation Movement,
Serge Sargsyan, Robert Kocharyan, Russia, Moscow, RPA, Repubican
Party of Armenia, Vazgen Manukyan, ARF, Dashnaktsutyun, National Debt, Interest Rates, Inflation,
Trade Deficit, WOrld Bank, Loans, Eurobond,