Azerbaijani Hubris and the Coming End of Aliyev's Regime 

Armenian News Network / Groong
July 29, 2017

By Grigor Hakobyan


SUMMARY

Recent revelations by Bulgarian newspaper (Trud) of connections
between Aliyev's regime and the state-run Silk Way Airlines accused of
shipping weapons and ammunition to various terrorist groups in the
Middle East under diplomatic cover were hurriedly pushed under the rug
by Azerbaijan's MOD announcement and video footage of newly acquired
military hardware from Russia, followed by its regular war rhetoric to
take back Artsakh through military means. Similar tactics were
utilized by Azerbajiani media last year, preceding the Four Day War in
April of 2016 when international media was awash with revelations
about billions of dollars' worth of offshore accounts held by a number
of foreign leaders, including Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev.

The revelations energized the Azerbaijani opposition to hold rallies
in Baku demanding Aliyev's resignation as the head of state. To
redirect public attention both inside the country and abroad Aliyev's
regime, never tired of speaking about exterminating the Armenians and
taking over all of Armenia, launched an unexpected war in Artsakh.
Unable to do the same this time around, the regime's PR machine went
into overdrive to advertise the delivery of Russian weapons, criticize
the international community and the Minsk Group co-chairs for failing
to resolve the conflict through diplomatic means and threatening to
take matters into their own hands once again through means of
war. However, despite the warmongering and showing off the latest
weapons in its arsenal, the Aliyev regime has run the course of its
usefulness and nearing its end.


BACKGROUND

In the past few months Azerbaijan received large amounts of military
hardware from a number of countries, including Russia, Turkey, Israel
and Pakistan. At the end of June hundreds of new tanks and armored
vehicles (T-90 and BTR-80A), Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS
"Smerch" and TOS-1A), Self-Propelled Howitzers (Msta-S), anti-tank
systems (Khrizantema-S) and other hardware, reportedly part of a $5
billion contract signed with Russia a few years ago, arrived in
Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan's Defense Minister gloated how the military is
now stronger than before and made no secret that the new military
hardware will be sent to the Line of Contact (LOC) in Artsakh to be
used during the next round of military escalation. Constant armament
purchases and never-ending war rhetoric from Aliyev's regime has
strained the situation along the Line of Contact once again where
frequent flare-ups between the opposing sides and shelling continue
unabated ever more frequently. As a consequence, dozens of soldiers
from both sides have been killed or wounded in the past few months.

Recently, a Bulgarian newspaper Trud ran an explosive report by
investigative journalist Dilyana Gaytandzhieva, linking the Aliyev
regime with Azerbaijan's state-run Silk Way Airlines that has
reportedly shipped a large amount of weapons and ammunition to various
terrorist groups in the Middle East while under cover of diplomatic
immunity. The reporter alleged to be in possession of secret documents
leaked by anonymous sources proving that 350 flights made by the Silk
Way Airlines in the past three years carried weapons and ammunition to
terrorist groups in Syria, Libya, Yemen and other hot spots throughout
Africa and Asia. A revelation of this kind in any other country of the
world would have brought down the ruling elite or caused for the West
to impose economic sanctions against the offending regime, but not in
Azerbaijan where Aliyev's dictatorship has total control over its
population, and not against Baku where global players spent billions
of dollars in developing energy infrastructure and cross continental
communication networks for ferrying goods and services between Europe
and Asia.


ANALYSIS

Many political analysts engage in numerical comparisons of military
personnel and hardware of opposing sides to imply or argue over which
side is more likely to defeat the other in a war. However, they miss
one important point that is of greater value than the number of
weapons or troops in possession of one country over another, and that
is the cause for which its soldiers are fighting and dying for if
needed. For Azerbaijan's leadership the war in Artsakh is the most
effective way to distract their population from internal problems
facing Azerbaijan, such as economic malice due to the devaluating
domestic currency, the Manat, declining oil reserves and low oil
prices, corruption undermining state institutions, the leadership's
support for terrorist organizations in the Middle East, and brutal
dictatorship based on suppressing basic freedoms of its citizens,
closing down and harassment of popular democratic institutions such as
NGOs and free press.

Furthermore, Azerbaijan's military hasn't yet recovered from its
humiliation for losing control over the historically Armenian province
which, despite its small size, fought fiercely for its independence
and defeated numerically superior Azerbaijani forces in the war of
liberation from 1988-1994 and during the Four Day War in April of
2016. Despite enjoying military superiority over Armenia in 2016,
Azerbaijani forces aided by Turkish Special Forces, Israeli military
advisers, and religious zealots from ISIS, failed to achieve major
advances against 18 and 19 year old Armenian conscripts who fought
them off with older soviet weapons, knives, shovels and corkscrews in
multiple close quarter combat situations. Some even chose to take
their own lives along with Azerbaijani commandos' rather than give
themselves up to captivity or beg for mercy.

As explained above, for the Armenian side, it is a matter of necessity
to stand against Azerbaijani military aggression and make every effort
to preserve Artsakh, which in addition to its historical and cultural
significance to Armenians presents itself as a strategic deterrent
against Azerbaijani expansionism. Failure is not an option. As the war
of 2016 has shown, Azerbaijan will never miss an opportunity to attack
Armenians with the intent of exterminating them if it feels that it
can get away with it with little or no consequences. The Armenian
soldiers who had the misfortune of being taken captive while wounded
in the war of April 2016 suffered unimaginable torture and
abuse. Their corpses returned home dismembered and mutilated, some
were even missing heads and other body parts yet no attempts were made
by the international community to bring those responsible to trial for
war crimes. Therefore, the next round of war will not be the same as
previous. The Armenian forces will carry out their counteroffensive
and put the last nail in the coffin of Aliyev's regime.

Unquestionably, the beginning of a new war will be the beginning of
the end for Aliyev's regime in Baku and possibly even the beginning of
the collapse of the Azerbaijani state. Given that the distance between
the center of Yerevan and the closest Azerbaijani positions along the
Line of Contact in Artsakh is less than 200 km, while the distance
between Yerevan and the closest Azerbaijani military positions in
Nakhichevan is less than 100 km, Armenia has no other choice but to
take Azerbaijani threats seriously and spare no efforts to neutralize
them by carrying out a series of preemptive strikes to destroy newly
acquired Azerbaijani military hardware before they manage to reach the
battlefield.


CONCLUSION

Almost no week goes by without having some high-ranking Azerbaijani
official, including the Azerbaijani president, or defense minister,
making threats to exterminate all Armenians not only in Armenia but
also in the diaspora. They make to secret of their desire to conquer
other regions of Armenia such as Zangezur and even the capital of
Armenia, Yerevan. In light of these threats standing up to Azerbaijani
aggression is a matter of survival for Armenia and the Armenian
people. Given that the same war rhetoric and armament acquisition by
Azerbaijan continue, the likelihood of another war cannot be ruled
out. As a matter of fact, it is not even a question of whether the war
will resume but when it will resume. Therefore, in light of constant
Russian supplies of offensive military hardware to Azerbaijan,
Armenia's leadership should reevaluate its military, economic and
political dependence on Russia, reconsider its non-nuclear status and
seek greater political, military and economic engagement with other
regional and global actors such as Iran, India, China, E.U. and the
U.S. that can help Armenia to enhance its security and improve its
economy.


--
Grigor Hakobyan is an independent political analyst residing in
Phoenix, AZ, and a former ANCA Fellow in Washington D.C. He is the
founder of a virtual think tank called Ararat Institute for Near Eastern
Studies. He was also a freelance writer for the Central Asia-Caucasus
Institute of John Hopkins University and has interned in Congress for Rep.
Brad Sherman, researching ethnic conflicts and terrorism in Russia,
Caucasus and Central Asia. Grigor also completed an internship at the
International Center for Terrorism Studies of the Potomac Institute for
Policy Studies where he researched international terrorist networks
operating in the Caucasus and Central Asia, preparing congressional
briefings for the Director of ICTS on WMDs. Grigor holds a B.A. in
Political Science from Arizona State University.